Reality
As an engineer I have no doubts about the reality of climate change. The evidence of so many scientists of international repute should be uncontestable. However there is a continuing and it seems well funded chorus of doubters. It is disheartening to know that so many are unable to see through the fog of fallacies and misrepresentation that those against climate change propagate. What is particularly distressing is the way the media handle “balanced reporting”. The worst feature is that the media ignore the true balance where there are about 500 real scientists who believe in global warming for every one in denial. Repeatedly one sees the true science presented by a quietly spoken scientist who quite honestly admits that we do not know every nuance of climate change. His every assertion is questioned and while he is 90-99% certain about what is put forward he is honest enough to say that the certainty is not 100%. Those against climate change are represented by a forceful personality who makes strong unsupported statements with no back up evidence and is not asked for such evidence. When presented with real matters of climate change they are denied or declared unproven again without evidence of the alleged flaws.
All of this has delayed action and watered down responses to the problems of which climate change by CO is an important but not the only aspect.
The Problems
While the increase of CO and the warming it produces is of utmost importance I fear that some of the other contributions are not getting enough attention. There is a need to take a holistic view if the best action is to be taken. I list here some of the items to be considered.
1. Improved living conditions.
Much of the world has a lower standard of living than the developed nations and will aspire to improve but improvement involves greater power consumption and at least some of that power will come from polluting sources.
2. Population increase
The population increase in the world cannot go on unchecked as the resources are finite while using them creates heat and CO . It has been shown that a better level of education of women in third world and developing countries reduces the number of children they have. Thus education is another factor needed to control climate change.
3. Health Care
The underprivileged suffer bad health and die early. Humanitarian considerations lead to action to alleviate this and thus add to the number of the living. This dilemma must be solved. So far the world has used war and genocide to limit the effects of improvements in health care but another way must be found to get the benefits without the disadvantages.
4. Power sources
The Copenhagen summit had reduction of CO as its main theme. Methods of doing this most frequently mentioned are solar and wind. In Britain the government seems obsessed with wind power and is only now and with reluctance considering nuclear. It is my opinion that nuclear power is a less than perfect solution but absolutely essential if the country is to survive. It is a non renewable source as Uranium will not last forever. Various sources suggest Uranium will last 150 years if used as in the past or 500 years if the best technology is used. In either case it may give enough time to develop working fusion plants. Both solar and wind are intermittent and coal power with carbon sequestration is still years from being a proven technology. Oil and gas costs will increase dramatically as sources dry up and they also increase CO . One reliable source of power has been sadly neglected. Little money or effort has been spent on tidal energy. I do not consider the little experiments on tidal turbines sufficient. Wave machines suffer from intermittent power in a flat calm just like wind. The Severn Barrage is unlikely to be built for many many years or never. Like fusion energy it has been coming in the next few years for about half a century.
The one source that is continuously available is tidal power from underwater turbines. A study of tide tables will show that at all hours of the day at least two points around the United Kingdom are in full flood and another two points at full ebb. The flow round headlands is faster than the main flow so it should be possible to find a group of locations so that power is available 24 hours per day. This might make hydrogen powered vehicles a real proposition. The only disadvantage seems to be that the moon would change orbit at a higher rate, perhaps a mile or two per million years. By taking energy out of tidal surges the turbines would help protect the coast from one effect of climate change.
5. Heat Effects
The USA is proposing a vast solar farm in the southern desert areas with an output of 6.9 terawatts. This means the desert will receive 6.9 TW less heat and this heat will reappear where the power is used. That is mainly in the North. One thinks of the heat island effect of cities and this seems an extreme case of that. What effect will it have on tornado alley which already causes enough trouble? Europe is considering the same idea on an even bigger scale in the Sahara if the political problems are ever solved. What effect would that have on weather? If the jet stream changes course the results could be dramatic.
Unless effective action is taken soon the warming will reach the stage, already becoming evident, of tundra melting. This releases methane in vast quantities for a potential runaway global warming beyond man’s capability to counter.
